PredictEdge — AI prediction market intelligence

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AI-powered prediction market intelligence

Spot the markets worth your attention — ranked by Edge Score.

Live odds, volume spikes, and AI analysis across 45 markets from 3 sources.

Markets tracked

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Odds moverCritical

Odds mover: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

+35.0 pts

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? moved +35.0 points over the latest window.

Polymarket

Odds moverCritical

Odds mover: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

-23.0 pts

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? moved -23.0 points over the latest window.

Polymarket

Closes 2026-09-25

Closes 2026-11-03

Closes 2028-01-01

Closes 2026-11-03

Closes TBD

Closes 2026-11-03

Closes 2027-01-05

Closes 2026-10-29

Closes 2026-11-03

Closes 2026-09-25

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2026-10-04

Closes 2026-10-01

Closes TBD

Closes 2027-01-31

Closes 2026-10-29

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2029-01-21

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2026-11-01

Closes 2026-11-04

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2028-01-02

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2026-09-30

Closes 2026-10-01

Closes 2027-01-02

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2026-11-04

Closes 2027-12-31

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2028-01-02

Closes 2026-10-01

Closes 2026-09-30

Closes 2026-12-31

Closes 2028-02-01

Closes 2027-01-01

Closes 2026-10-01

Selected market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Strong watch

Edge Score

Alert

Probability

46%

24h move

+35.0 pts

Liquidity

$9K

Volume change

+227%

Scenario calculator

Compare your estimate with the market and inspect how the modeled result changes when your assumptions change.

Market data

Current YES price: 46.0 cents
Current NO price: 54.0 cents
Reported liquidity: $9,435.11
Listed close: Sep 25, 2026
Source timestamp: Not available
Resolution rules: Not available

Your assumptions

Your YES probability estimate46%

This is your input, not a PredicEdge or AI forecast.

Uncertainty (+/- points)Allocation cap (%)

Hypothetical budget (optional)$Fee assumption (%)

Numerical assumptions stay in this browser session and are not stored or sent to AI.

Calculated scenarios

Current inputs produce

No positive modeled value

Your estimate is 0.0 points from the market-implied YES probability.

Market-implied probability: 46.0%
Break-even YES estimate: 46.0%
Modeled value per $1: 0.0%
Full Kelly formula result: 0.0%

Fractional examples

Formula	Fraction	Capped example
Quarter fraction	0.0%	Add budget
Half fraction	0.0%	Add budget
Full fraction	0.0%	Add budget

Sensitivity analysis

This view shows whether the modeled conclusion survives a small change in your estimate.

Estimate	YES probability	Scenario	Modeled value	Kelly result
Pessimistic	41%	NO	9.3%	10.9%
Base	46%	Neutral	0.0%	0.0%
Optimistic	51%	YES	10.9%	9.3%
Break-even	46%	Neutral	0.0%	0.0%

Assumptions and warnings

Provider fees are unknown, so the model uses 0% and may overstate results.
Reported liquidity is below $25,000; displayed prices may be difficult to enter or exit near.
Complete resolution rules are not available in PredicEdge; verify them at the source venue.
Your uncertainty range crosses break-even, so the modeled conclusion changes within the range.
Historical observations are incomplete, limiting comparison with prior market behavior.

Formulas and limitations

Modeled value: outcome probability x net profit when correct, minus the probability-weighted cost when incorrect.

Kelly fraction: (net odds x assumed probability - opposing probability) / net odds. The output can become aggressive when the probability estimate is wrong.

Binary contracts are modeled as paying $1 when the selected outcome resolves true and $0 otherwise.

Fees are modeled as 0% because provider fee data is missing.

Fractional Kelly outputs are mathematical examples derived from the user-entered probability, not recommendations.

Example allocations cannot exceed 5% of the optional hypothetical budget.

Research tool only. Results are hypothetical and depend on your assumptions. PredicEdge does not recommend trades or wager amounts.

Forecast calibration

Your probability estimate46%

Market implies 46%. Your estimate matches the market-implied probability.

Track your read on this market

Save your estimate to your track record. PredictEdge compares it against the market after resolution.

Forecast logging is for calibration and research only. PredictEdge does not recommend trades, stakes, or positions.

AI analysis summary

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of thi…

AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or incorrect. It presents research cases and uncertainty and does not recommend a side, trade, or wager amount.

Stress-test your thesis

Pick the outcome you're evaluating. AI argues the other way. Each stress test uses 2 AI credits.

Spot the markets worth your attention — ranked by Edge Score.

Top signals

Odds mover: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Odds mover: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 25?

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?: Before 2027

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?: Before January 21, 2029

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?

Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Scenario calculator

Market data

Your assumptions

Calculated scenarios

Fractional examples

Sensitivity analysis

Assumptions and warnings

Forecast calibration

AI analysis summary

Stress-test your thesis

Key drivers

Risks

Related markets