PredictEdge — AI prediction market intelligence

Provider fees are unknown, so the model uses 0% and may overstate results.
This market is within seven days of its listed close time.
Complete resolution rules are not available in PredicEdge; verify them at the source venue.
Your uncertainty range crosses break-even, so the modeled conclusion changes within the range.
Historical observations are incomplete, limiting comparison with prior market behavior.

Formulas and limitations

Modeled value: outcome probability x net profit when correct, minus the probability-weighted cost when incorrect.

Kelly fraction: (net odds x assumed probability - opposing probability) / net odds. The output can become aggressive when the probability estimate is wrong.

Binary contracts are modeled as paying $1 when the selected outcome resolves true and $0 otherwise.

Fees are modeled as 0% because provider fee data is missing.

Fractional Kelly outputs are mathematical examples derived from the user-entered probability, not recommendations.

Example allocations cannot exceed 5% of the optional hypothetical budget.

Research tool only. Results are hypothetical and depend on your assumptions. PredicEdge does not recommend trades or wager amounts.

Forecast calibration

Your probability estimate9%

Market implies 9%. Your estimate matches the market-implied probability.

Track your read on this market

Save your estimate to your track record. PredictEdge compares it against the market after resolution.

Forecast logging is for calibration and research only. PredictEdge does not recommend trades, stakes, or positions.

AI analysis summary

No cached AI analysis yet. Generate one for a fresh informational breakdown.

Live Polymarket market loaded from Supabase. Generate an AI analysis for a full breakdown.

AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or incorrect. It presents research cases and uncertainty and does not recommend a side, trade, or wager amount.

Stress-test your thesis

Pick the outcome you're evaluating. AI argues the other way. Each stress test uses 2 AI credits.

Key drivers

Live market from Polymarket — generate an AI analysis for drivers

Risks

No AI analysis generated yet for this market

Edge inputs

Volume100

Movement100

Liquidity8

Activity73

Analysis confidence input60

Spot the markets worth your attention — ranked by Edge Score.

Top signals

Odds mover: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?

Odds mover: Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Biggest movers

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?

2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

2028 Democratic presidential nominee: James Talarico

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9?

2028 Republican presidential nominee: Tucker Carlson

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ron DeSantis

2028 Republican presidential nominee: J.D. Vance

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 9?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?

Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation: Indiana

Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation: A new location in Illinois

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Bitcoin $150K in 2026?

Will METR publish an 80% task horizon of at least 16 hours for a pre-2028 AI model release?

Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Will Infantino win the election for President of FIFA?

Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026?

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?

Market quality

Scenario calculator

Market data

Your assumptions

Calculated scenarios

Fractional examples

Sensitivity analysis